‘Inter-sector’ M&A to see 20% fewer asset and wealth managers by 2029
Up to 20 per cent of wealth and asset managers are set to be acquired by 2029, according to Morgan Stanley, with focus expected to move to ‘inter-sector’ deals between industries.
The firm’s report, The race for relevance fuelling M&A, produced with consultancy Oliver Wyman, found there have been over 200 significant M&A transactions in the space per year since 2022, twice the pace of the preceding decade.
Most of these have so far been what the report described as ‘intra-sector’ within an industry vertical, but mixed success with this so far means future ones will now be ‘inter-sector’. These are described as deals expanding along the value chain, seeking to provide additional services to improve and complete the client experience.
Some wealth managers are actively pursuing further integration with their asset managers (fueling transactions to scale up investment capabilities) while others are contemplating carve-outs.
“This includes asset manager/wealth manager transactions in either direction primarily to secure clients through captive or preferred distribution relationships, to secure differentiating investment capabilities and, to a lesser extent, generate cost synergies through shared centers of excellence,” it said.
“For acquirers, the execution playbook is clear yet arduous. They will need to choose the right target (prioritising revenue complementarity and cultural compatibility over cost synergy potential), de-risk transactions (manage talent and asset attrition, reduce beta sensitivity in valuations), execute decisively to fend off competition and run flawless post-merger integration to materialise ambitious return targets.”
There was debate around whether a PE investment case was emerging in asset management. Some asset managers pointed to new investment and value creation opportunities emerging, while others perceived attrition, talent, and beta risks as being insurmountable.
Future activity
Looking at recent and future activity, it detailed recent deals made by firms larger than US$1 billion in assets and forecast what it could look like in the next five years.
Morgan Stanley noted the number of asset managers being launched had "come to a screeching halt" since 2022 with the number of new asset managers launching struggling to exceed the number who have ceased operations since 2023.
In 2024, there were 116 wealth management transactions, 75 from alternative asset managers and just 36 in asset management. So far in the first half of 2025, there have already been 86 in wealth management, 37 among alternative asset managers, and 10 by asset managers to bring the projected total for the full year to 266, up from 227 in the previous year.
This total was a substantial jump from as low as 105 deals enacted back in 2019.
“In 2024, the industry saw record AUM transacted, bolstered by high-profile mergers and thriving mid-market consolidation activity. The number of transactions has stabilised at a new post-COVID high, more than doubling from the previous five years, at approximately 210 per year since 2022 (versus a historic average of approximately 100),” it said.
But by 2029, the total number could reach as high as 350 per year, with up to 150 in wealth management, 90 in asset managers, and 120 for alternative asset managers.
“We expect over 1,500 significant transactions involving asset and wealth managers in the next five years with up to 20 per cent of existing firms being acquired,” it said.
Source: Dealogic, Oliver Wyman, September 2025
AUTHOR
Laura Dew
Recommended for you
Fidelity International has appointed Thomas Taw to the newly created role of head of ETF distribution for APAC, joining from a decade at BlackRock.
GQG Partners’ year-to-date flows are 80 per cent lower than the same period a year ago as underperformance prompts three consecutive months of outflows.
ASIC has canceled the AFSL of Sydney-based asset consultant and research firm.
Index provider MSCI has unveiled global classification standards, making it easier to research private asset funds, describing how it will offer “order, comparability and consistency” for wealth managers.
