The global economy could potentially recover from the COVID-19 economic turmoil within six months, according to deVere Group.
However, the suggestion came with two caveats; that mass testing was rolled out immediately and the Governments guaranteed to support demand.
Nigel Green, chief executive of deVere, based his views on the fact China’s economy was stabilising following COVID-19 restrictions being lifted. The world was now watching China to see how it would get back on its feet and whether there would be a resurgence of cases now the lockdown had eased.
However, it was questionable if the strict tactics used by China would be successfully replicated in other Western countries.
“Most of the world is currently in phase one: lockdown. The unprecedented lockdown measures are, of course, dramatically slowing economies as both supply and demand are hit.
“The next phase, phase two, needs to be mass testing. An aggressive mass testing agenda, the likes of which could soon happen in Germany according to reports, would allow potentially millions of people to leave lockdown early, get back to work, and help kick start economies.”
He continued: “Once mass testing is implemented, we can expect to see supply increase. But what about the other essential factor: demand? Without it, economies will continue their downward trajectory.
“If mass testing is carried out stringently and immediately, we could be looking at recovery signs within six months. If there’s a failure to do this, we could be looking at much longer downturn.”
G20 leaders, he said, must do “whatever it takes” to minimise the economic and social damage caused by the pandemic.