Forecasting a market direction
In a world where careers and money are built on the ability to forecast the direction of markets, rarely does Outsider hear someone dispute the viability of this.
He was therefore pleasantly surprised to hear it admitted on a Morgan Stanley & SG Hiscock webinar that those forecasters were unlikely to always get it right.
Asked for her views on whether the market would see a sell-off this year, Laura Bottega, lead portfolio specialist at Morgan Stanley, said: “Anybody who tells you they do know where it’s going, is in our view, perhaps not being fully authentic”.
After all, the famous comment is that a monkey throwing darts at the financial pages could pick stocks as well as a professional stockpicker so why should forecasting markets be different?
Outsider just hopes no-one tells AMP Capital’s chief economist Shane Oliver, perhaps one of Australia’s most-prolific market forecasters.
AUTHOR
The Outsider
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