'This mining boom is different', says HSBC
Despite concerns of a 'mining bust', HSBC chief economist in Australia and New Zealand Paul Bloxham insists that "this time is different".
The current commodities boom in Australia differs from past experiences because "irrational exuberance in the mining sector has not spilled over into the broader economy this time around", said Bloxham.
He went on to list four factors that set the current mining boom apart from past experiences in Australia.
Firstly, Australia's post-war recessions have coincided with global downturns, "with the falling terms of trade a result rather than the cause".
"To forecast an Australian recession, recent history would suggest it would be necessary to be forecasting a global one," said Bloxham.
Secondly, inflation has been largely contained this time around, he said.
"Inflation has generally been low and wages have remained contained in all but the mining sector, so that price pressures have not spread across the economy," he said.
Thirdly, foreign involvement in the mining industry is much higher this time around, "which should cushion the effect on the local economy". He added that four-fifths of the mining industry is foreign-owned.
Finally, "the financial system is also not overly leveraged into the mining story, as it has been on some occasions in the past", Bloxham said.
"Having escaped the global financial crisis reasonably unscathed, Australia's banking system is also in pretty good shape - such that conventional monetary policy still works," Bloxham said.
"When the mining story fades, which is not yet, there will be room for other sectors to pick up and [for] growth to rebalance. Rebalancing will be assisted by the steady Australian dollar and below-average RBA [Reserve Bank of Australia] rates, though some further adjustment to RBA rates will probably be necessary," he concluded.
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