Parties’ decarbonisation plans offer opportunities for infrastructure investors

Despite different pathways and pace of emission cuts, the plans of both the Coalition and the Australian Labor Party (ALP) will require substantial infrastructure investment and deployment, according to 4D Infrastructure.

The fund manager said that while both parties targeted Net Zero by 2050, the ALP had a faster trajectory, introducing a suite of policy measures aimed at delivering national emissions reductions of 43% below 2005 levels by 2030.

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In comparison, the Coalition’s current target was a more modest 26-28% reduction by 2030, while projecting a 30-35% actual reduction.

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4D Infrastructure stressed that the ALP first established its 2050 Net Zero emissions target back in 2015, which was ahead of the United Nations Conference on Climate Change in Paris, and acknowledged that Australia’s transition required a decarbonisation pathway.

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However, it wasn’t until October 2021 that the Coalition introduced its policy target of Net Zero by 2050.

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“To put both plans in perspective, Australia has already reduced emissions by ~20% on 2005 levels,” the manager said.

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According to the ALP’s ‘Powering Australia Plan’ would be focused on policy measures in three key sectors of the economy – electricity, industry & carbon farming, and transport, which in 2021 collectively accounted for ~79% of national emissions.

Further to that, by 2030, the ALP projected the economic impact of its policies to include:

• 63,994 direct and 604,000 indirect jobs;
• Estimated required investment of at least A$76b (A$24b public sector / A$52b private sector);
• Renewables to be 82% of the National Electricity Market (higher than the 68% forecast in the Coalition plan); and
• Annual average electricity retail bills projected to decline by A$275 p.a. by 2025 (-18%) and A$378 p.a. by 2030 (-26%).