Zimbabwe vulture bandwagon should be avoided
Zimbabwe’s troubled economy may have a chance to recover if Robert Mugabe leaves quietly, but it will take time and capital to rebuild, Investec Africa Funds portfolio manager Roelof Horne said yesterday.
“Change, just about any change, is the best possible outcome for the country,” he said.
Robert Mugabe has been the leader of Zimbabwe, first as Prime Minister and then as President, since 1980.
The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade currently advises Australians to “reconsider their need to travel” in Zimbabwe because of the “high level of criminal activity, the absence of the rule of law, and deteriorating economic conditions”.
“Short of civil war, I suspect that the worst case scenario for most investors would be a quiet continuation of the status quo,” Horne said.
Zimbabwe-exposure stocks have started rallying in the last two days as the opposition party claimed victory in the country’s elections, he said.
Reports coming out of Zimbabwe have been largely uncertain as to whether Mugabe will accept the opposition’s claims of victory.
While Horne said investors who have a low exposure to the country in the future might face a large potential opportunity loss, he argued that investment should be done slowly and methodically.
“Instead of hopping onto the vulture bandwagon, we are quite satisfied to sit back for the moment … and miss the first wild scramble that will inevitably follow positive political change,” he said.
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