Is a short recession too good to be true?

12 June 2020

Mrs O likes to do things old school. No electronic billing, just what comes in the mail.

Thus, Outsider noted as he opened an old-fashioned paper-based bank statement that the financial institution involved had printed the warning that “if something looks too good to be true, then it probably is”. His bank balance, by the way, did not look too good to be true.

The bank’s admonition was, evidently, aimed at people who transact online but it did give Outsider pause to consider the plight of people such as US hedge fund guru, Paul

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Tudor Jones who admitted earlier this month that he had been someone blind-sided by the continuing recovery in markets in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic.

It seems that Tudor Jones was initially sceptical of the Wall Street rally but is now accepting that it is the product of the trillions of dollars in stimulus from the US Congress and the Federal Reserve prompting him to state: “our citizenry has more cash now than they had going into what will be the shortest recession in the history of the United States”.

Outsider hopes that Tudor Jones’ recent embrace of optimism about the solidity of the market recovery is justified, but he fears that all that glistens is not gold when it comes to the current state of the markets.

Indeed, Outsider reckons it might be a very good time to buy some gold because, as the message from his bank said, “if something looks too good to be true, then it probably is”.

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