The delay to the vaccine rollout is unlikely to have a detrimental effect on the Australian economy, but the biggest worry will be the delay to international travel, according to J.P. Morgan Asset Management (JPMAM).
The Government had initially set a roadmap to have 65% of people vaccinated by August but this was not likely to be unachievable due to the concerns about the AstraZeneca vaccine. This meant Australia would instead wait for additional doses of the Pfizer jab to arrive which could take until the fourth quarter of 2021.
Earlier this week, the McKell Institute estimated, in a worst-case scenario, this delay could cost the economy some $4 billion from the risk of further lockdowns.
But JPMAM global market strategist, Kerry Craig, said he expected there would be unlikely to be a negative economic effect from the delay.
“The delay to the vaccine rollout is unlikely to have a detrimental effect on GDP and it wont drive Australia into another recession. But what you will see is the contrast with those places such as US and Europe which will be seeing the benefit of international travel. We might see the currency soften as well.
“Any opening of international borders is likely to be delayed by a few months now. I think the rollout will pick up quickly when the vaccines do arrive, it won’t delay the process by a year, it will only be a few months.”
At the time of writing, around 120 million in the US had received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine and 32 million had received at least one dose in the UK. This compared to just over one million people in Australia.
