Budget 2023: Economic growth to slow to 1.5%
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has warned economic growth is expected to slow to 1.5 per cent in 2024.
Announcing his second budget speech on 9 May, Chalmers announced the macroeconomic conditions and forecasts of the Australian economy.
Economic growth was forecast to be 3.25 per cent this year then fall dramatically to 1.5 per cent in 2024. It would then rise slightly to 2.25 per cent in 2025.
Inflation was expected to fall to 3.25 per cent next year and return to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s target band of 2-3 per cent in 2024-25, which Chalmers stated was "still higher than we'd like".
CPI inflation was 7 per cent in the March quarter, down from 7.8 per cent, and Chalmers had previously confirmed this figure was the ‘peak’ of inflation. Quarterly inflation increased by 1.4 per cent, the smallest quarterly increase since December 2021.
He said: “The global economy is slowing due to persistent inflation, higher interest rates and financial sector strains.
“Inflation remains our primary economic challenges, it drives rate rises and erodes real wages. Which is why this Budget is carefully calibrated to alleviate inflationary pressures, not add to them. Our policies to ease the pressure on households will take ¾ of a percentage point off inflation in 2023–24.”
Wages growth for 2023–24 was forecast to be 4 per cent, an “earlier and stronger return to real wages growth” than had been forecast at the last Budget in October 2022.
A small surplus was forecast in 2022-23 and was expected to be followed by a deficit of $13.9 billion in 2023-24.
Since the last Budget in October, Australia had seen consecutive interest rate rises with only March seeing a pause in the increases. Interest rates currently sat at 3.85 per cent and had risen 11 times since May 2022.
AUTHOR
Laura Dew
Recommended for you
The merger with L1 Capital will “inject new life” into Platinum, Morningstar believes, but is unlikely to boost Platinum’s declining funds under management.
More than half of the top 20 most popular shares bought by advised investors during the first half of 2025 were ETFs, according to AUSIEX data.
At least two-thirds of ETF flows are understood to be driven by intermediaries, according to Global X, as net flows into Australian ETFs spike 97 per cent in the first half of 2025.
Inflows for the first half of 2025 for GQG Partners stand at US$8 billion, but the firm has flagged fund underperformance could be a headwind for future flows.
