2021 global performance to surpass pre-COVID levels
The global economy could grow by 6.3% in 2021, with growth in a best-case scenario reaching as high as 7.5%, according to PGIM Fixed Income.
The firm said it expected the ‘bull’ path for global growth would be 7.5% while the ‘bear’ case would be for growth of 5.4%.
Whichever case manifested, growth would still be higher in every quarter of 2021 than in the final quarter of 2019, pre-COVID-19.
Nathan Sheets, chief economist and head of global macroeconomic research, said: “Given the rate at which economic conditions are evolving, we recently rechecked the pulse of growth in China, and the global economy.
“Importantly, the scenarios eclipse the Q4 2019 level in each quarter of 2021. In 2022, our base case moderates to 4.1%.”
Looking specifically at China, which had been the biggest economy to emerge successfully from the pandemic, PGIM said it expected growth of 9% in 2021. In a bull case, this would rise to 9.7% or fall to 8% in a bear scenario.
For 2022, however, PGIM expected the country would see a dip after a heady 2021 and report growth of 4.7%, almost half that of 2021 figures. A bull case would be 5.8% while the bear would be 3.5%.
According to FE Analytics, the MSCI World index had risen 24.9% over one year to 23 April, 2021.
Performance of MSCI World over one year to 23 April 2021
AUTHOR
Laura Dew
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