AMP’s Oliver: Recession unlikely due to lack of excess
The economy is unlikely to get into a recession, as it lacks the excesses of past pre-recession economies, according to Shane Oliver, AMP Capital’s chief economist.
Speaking at AMP’s ‘Realise the Possibilities’ workshop, Oliver said that because it’s been the slowest recovery on record, Australia had not seen the excesses that existed in the past.
“I don’t think we are going to have a recession, the risks have gone up, there’s lots of things to worry about, but as long as we avoid a recession, we might still get volatility,” Oliver said.
“But I don’t think it’s going to be a protracted bear market, where a year later we’re down another 20%.”
Oliver said slow wage growth, central banks not ‘slamming on the brakes’, lack of excessive private debt built-up, and a lack of overspending in housing or technology had created positive signs.
“So we haven’t built up the excesses that normally give us a recession, just because the recovery is long in the tooth, doesn’t mean it’s about to collapse,” Oliver said.
AUTHOR
Chris Dastoor
Recommended for you
The Australian Financial Complaints Authority has reported an 18 per cent increase in investment and advice complaints received in the financial year 2025, rebounding from the previous year’s 26 per cent dip.
As reports flow in of investors lining up to buy gold at Sydney’s ABC Bullion store this week, two financial advisers have cautioned against succumbing to the hype as gold prices hit shaky ground.
After three weeks of struggling gains, this week has marked a return to strong growth for adviser numbers, in addition to three new licensees commencing.
ASIC has banned a Melbourne-based financial adviser who gave inappropriate advice to his clients including false and misleading Statements of Advice.
