AMP’s Oliver: Recession unlikely due to lack of excess
The economy is unlikely to get into a recession, as it lacks the excesses of past pre-recession economies, according to Shane Oliver, AMP Capital’s chief economist.
Speaking at AMP’s ‘Realise the Possibilities’ workshop, Oliver said that because it’s been the slowest recovery on record, Australia had not seen the excesses that existed in the past.
“I don’t think we are going to have a recession, the risks have gone up, there’s lots of things to worry about, but as long as we avoid a recession, we might still get volatility,” Oliver said.
“But I don’t think it’s going to be a protracted bear market, where a year later we’re down another 20%.”
Oliver said slow wage growth, central banks not ‘slamming on the brakes’, lack of excessive private debt built-up, and a lack of overspending in housing or technology had created positive signs.
“So we haven’t built up the excesses that normally give us a recession, just because the recovery is long in the tooth, doesn’t mean it’s about to collapse,” Oliver said.
Recommended for you
With Fortnum Private Wealth and Professional Financial Services now unified under the Entireti umbrella company, CEO Neil Younger has detailed to Money Management the firm’s new direction and future expansion.
The FAAA has suggested looking offshore for overseas financial advisers to ease the adviser shortage, but are employers willing to take on the burden of workplace visas?
There may be a huge influx of alternatives coming to the market, but timing and access difficulties mean advisers can easily end up disappointed with their selection, according to Morningstar global CIO Dan Kemp.
An NSW individual has pleaded guilty to one criminal charge of providing unlicensed financial services after promoting crypto investments at national seminars.
