Expect a bull market in H2 23: Tribeca

The Australian market could see double-digit returns this year compared to a lacklustre 2022, according to Tribeca manager Jun Bei Liu.

The ASX 200 ended the year down 1%, a negative performance but one which was better than global peers with the S&P 500 down 19.4% to report its worst year since 2008.

Liu, portfolio manager of the Tribeca Alpha Plus fund, said she expected 2023 to be a bull market in Australia.

“In 2023, we will have a much better economic environment than in 2022, people have come back from their holidays and realised they were way too bearish at the end of the year. Valuations look reasonable but we haven’t had a big earnings downgrade yet.

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“We will see double-digit returns this year, the market is already at 7%, and in the second half of the year we will see a bull market and hit a record high.

“By then, inflation should be under control, corporate cashflows holding up well, we have good exposure to commodities and financials which will give very good income support and M&A is going to pick up as well now that we’ve passed the peak of the bond yield adjustment last September.”

Looking at specific sectors which would do well, she pinpointed commodities which would benefit from the strength of the Aussie dollar, banks, select healthcare companies and stabilisation of the residential housing market.

“A stronger Aussie dollar does mean commodity companies are well placed and will do better, they are having a good run at the moment. With China re-opening, that means it is positive for the sector sentiment wise. My view over 12 months is they will do very well and have a good dividend payout ratio and good earnings.

“But for the next three months, it is much harder to call because they rallied very hard in the first two weeks of the year and we are unsure how long the China re-opening will take. The next few months will be a bit rough but over 12 months, they will do better.”